…as Dangote Refinery reshapes oil trade
By Seun Ibiyemi
Nigeria’s crude oil exports declined by 14.41 per cent to $31.54bn in 2025, down from $36.85bn recorded in 2024, as the operations of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery significantly altered the country’s oil trade dynamics.
This was revealed in the Balance of Payments report released by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which highlighted a structural shift in crude oil flows despite Nigeria’s status as a major oil producer.
According to the report, Nigeria also recorded crude oil imports worth $3.74bn in 2025, largely linked to feedstock supply for the Dangote refinery.
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This development reflects a growing trend where crude is redirected for domestic refining rather than solely for export.
The drop in crude oil export earnings contributed to a moderation in Nigeria’s current account surplus, which fell to $14.04bn in 2025 from $19.03bn in 2024.
However, the figure remains significantly higher than the $6.42bn recorded in 2023.
The apex bank attributed the decline partly to evolving oil trade patterns, including increased crude imports for local processing and reduced dependence on external markets for refined products.
Despite weaker crude export performance, Nigeria’s goods account posted a stronger surplus of $14.51bn in 2025, up from $13.17bn in 2024.
This was largely driven by refined petroleum exports, which surged to $5.85bn, boosted by production from the Dangote refinery.
The report also noted a significant reduction in fuel imports, which dropped by 28.88 per cent to $10.00bn in 2025 from $14.06bn in the previous year.
This reflects improved domestic supply of refined petroleum products, easing pressure on foreign exchange demand.
However, rising non-oil imports up 13.60 per cent to $29.24bn continued to weigh on the external sector, highlighting sustained demand for foreign goods.
Additional pressure came from higher external payments. Net service outflows increased to $14.58bn, while primary income outflows surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn, driven by higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.
On the financial account, Nigeria recorded a net borrowing position of $1.69bn in 2025, a reversal from the $9.65bn net lending position in 2024.
Portfolio investment inflows declined sharply, while foreign direct investment rose to $4.01bn, signaling a gradual shift toward longer-term capital inflows.
Overall, Nigeria maintained a positive balance of payments position of $4.23bn in 2025, although lower than the $6.83bn surplus recorded a year earlier.
External reserves also improved, rising to $45.75bn at the end of December 2025, supported by stronger inflows and enhanced external buffers.
The data underscores a transition in Nigeria’s oil sector, where increased domestic refining capacity is beginning to reshape crude export patterns while strengthening value-added petroleum exports.
