…Surges above $100 as Middle East conflict escalates
… Fuel price changes driven by market forces – NMDPRA
By Seun Ibiyemi
Fresh concerns over a possible increase in petrol prices have emerged in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector following the suspension of loading operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery has halted the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, until further notice, with tanker drivers already queued at the facility reportedly instructed to leave the premises as operations were temporarily paused.
The development has sparked widespread speculation among marketers and industry stakeholders that the refinery may soon announce another increase in its ex-depot petrol price, potentially as early as Monday.
Read also: NNPC, Dangote refinery renew strategic partnership to boost energy security
Industry observers say the move follows a pattern previously observed at the refinery, where loading activities are suspended shortly before the announcement of a price adjustment.
A similar incident occurred on March 6 at about 2:00 a.m. West African Time when loading was halted before the refinery announced a ₦121 increase, raising the ex-depot price of PMS to ₦995 per litre.
That adjustment came shortly after an earlier increase on March 2, when the refinery raised its petrol gantry price from ₦774 to ₦874 per litre, citing rising pressures in the domestic fuel market.
The repeated suspension of loading activities followed by price revisions has made petroleum marketers, depot operators and other stakeholders increasingly attentive to developments at the refinery.
Many operators in Nigeria’s downstream sector often align their pricing strategies with adjustments made by the Dangote refinery, which has emerged as a major supplier of refined petroleum products in the country.
Analysts warn that any further increase in the refinery’s ex-depot price could trigger another round of pump price adjustments across filling stations nationwide, further intensifying the cost burden on consumers and businesses.
…surges above $100 as Middle East conflict escalates
Also, Global oil prices surged in early Asian trading on Monday, climbing above $100 per barrel for the first time in nearly four years as tensions in the Middle East intensified following renewed clashes involving Iran, the United States and Israel.
At the time of filing this report, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $108.66 per barrel, up $17.76, or 19.5 per cent, while Brent crude rose to $108.69, gaining $16.00, or 17.3 per cent.
The rally followed a sharp escalation in the regional conflict over the weekend, including attacks on energy infrastructure and military targets that have heightened concerns about potential disruptions to oil flows from the Middle East.
Israeli strikes reportedly targeted major fuel storage facilities near Tehran, while Iran continued launching drone and missile attacks across the region.
A drone strike damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain, a missile barrage injured several people in central Israel, and a US service member was reportedly killed following an Iranian counterattack in Saudi Arabia.
Adding to the geopolitical uncertainty, Iran’s Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader.
Analysts said the appointment signals continuity in Tehran’s hardline leadership at a time of rising regional tensions.
Financial markets reacted sharply to the developments. Futures linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 both fell by about 1.6 per cent as investors priced in heightened geopolitical risk and surging energy costs.
Energy traders are particularly focused on whether the conflict could disrupt production or exports from major Gulf producers.
Any significant interference with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a route that carries roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil — could remove millions of barrels per day from the market.
The spike in crude prices has also strengthened the US dollar and raised concerns about a renewed wave of energy-driven inflation, especially for major oil-importing economies already grappling with high fuel costs.
… Fuel price changes driven by market forces – NMDPRA
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) says fluctuations in fuel pump prices are a direct result of market dynamics under Nigeria’s deregulated downstream petroleum sector.
The authority’s spokesperson, George Ene-Ita, said this in an interview with newsmen in Abuja while reacting to the recent increase in fuel pump prices linked to the ongoing Middle East crisis.
Reports that many motorists have expressed concern and dissatisfaction over the recent hike in prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) called fuel, which were previously sold between N875 and N880 per litre.
Currently, independent marketers are selling fuel between N960 and N1,000 per litre and above, while outlets of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited are selling at about N960 per litre.
Nigerians have expressed concern on the justification for the increase in pump price and the implications to the country.
Ene-Ita said the variations in pump prices across the country were not due to regulatory interference but were driven by supply and demand forces within the market.
“Nigeria has been operating a fully deregulated downstream petroleum regime since the inception of the current administration.
“Therefore, pump price vagaries are purely as a result of market dynamics,” he said.
He explained that under a deregulated framework, petroleum product prices responded to prevailing market conditions.
He added that the policy direction was aimed at allowing market forces to determine prices while encouraging competition, efficiency and increased investment in Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas sector.
IPMAN urges FG to cut crude price for Dangote Refinery
The National President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Abubakar Garima, has appealed to the Federal Government to reduce the cost of crude oil supplied to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in order to address the rising price of petrol across the country.
Garima said the move had become necessary as the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, has climbed above ₦1,000 per litre in several states.
According to him, lowering the crude oil price for the refinery would help reduce production costs and ultimately bring down the retail price of petrol for consumers.
The IPMAN president warned that the continued increase in petrol prices is placing significant pressure on businesses, transport operators and households across Nigeria.
He therefore urged the Federal Government to intervene by ensuring that crude oil is made available to local refineries at more affordable rates to stabilise the downstream petroleum sector.
Garima noted that such a policy would not only support domestic refining capacity but also help cushion the impact of fuel price volatility on Nigerians.
