Expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran have sparked optimism over a possible reduction in fuel prices in Nigeria, with indications that the Dangote Refinery may lower its ex-gantry prices for petrol and diesel if the recent decline in global crude oil prices is sustained.
The positive outlook follows reports of progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, including an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.
The development has eased concerns over supply disruptions and contributed to a decline in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $84 per barrel.
Industry stakeholders say the drop in crude prices could eventually translate into lower costs for refined petroleum products in Nigeria, offering relief to consumers and businesses burdened by rising energy and transportation expenses.
Sources familiar with developments in the downstream petroleum sector revealed that fuel marketers have already begun adjusting their purchasing strategies in anticipation of possible price reductions.
According to market sources, many independent marketers are delaying bulk purchases while awaiting potential downward revisions in depot and ex-gantry prices..
A source within the Dangote Refinery disclosed that while market conditions currently support a reduction in fuel prices, the refinery is still processing substantial volumes of crude oil acquired when international oil prices were significantly higher.
The source noted that petrol prices could decline to around ₦900 per litre if crude oil prices continue their downward trajectory.
“₦900 per litre petrol is achievable if oil prices remain at lower levels. However, the refinery still has substantial volumes of expensive crude in stock,” the source said.
Another industry insider stated that future pricing decisions would depend largely on developments in the global oil market and the successful implementation of any agreement between the United States and Iran.
“If oil prices continue to decline and the US-Iran agreement is successfully concluded, a reduction in fuel prices is highly likely,” the source explained.
Market checks indicate that several fuel marketers have slowed fresh orders over the past week, expecting lower ex-depot prices in the near term.
Analysts believe any reduction in prices by the Dangote Refinery could intensify competition among petroleum depots, particularly in Lagos, where some operators have recently offered petrol and diesel at rates below prevailing market prices to attract customers.
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Industry observers say the coming days will be crucial for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, as sustained weakness in global crude prices and a successful diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran could trigger one of the most significant fuel price adjustments in recent months.
However, experts caution that the scale and timing of any price reduction will depend on how quickly refiners deplete existing high-cost crude inventories and adjust pricing structures to reflect prevailing market conditions.
For millions of Nigerians, any reduction in petrol and diesel prices would provide much-needed relief amid persistent inflationary pressures, high transportation costs and rising energy expenses.
