By Seun Ibiyemi
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has credited the economic reforms of President Bola Tinubu’s administration with significantly improving Nigeria’s fiscal outlook and external reserves, saying the measures helped avert a deeper economic crisis and restore investor confidence.
In its assessment of the administration’s first three years in office, the private sector advocacy group said the government inherited an economy burdened by severe fiscal and foreign exchange vulnerabilities, including dwindling reserves, weak investor confidence, multiple exchange rates and an unsustainable subsidy regime.
According to CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the administration’s decision to remove fuel subsidies and unify exchange rates marked a turning point in Nigeria’s economic management, helping to stabilize public finances and strengthen the country’s external position.
Yusuf noted that prior to the reforms, net external reserves had reportedly fallen below $5 billion, while foreign exchange liquidity was severely constrained and trade finance obligations faced mounting pressure.
“The economy was approaching a tipping point as the fiscal, monetary and structural foundations of the prevailing model became increasingly unsustainable,” the report stated.
He said the removal of fuel subsidies halted a major source of fiscal leakage and reduced the burden on government finances, creating room for a more sustainable downstream petroleum sector.
“Similarly, exchange rate unification was described as a critical step towards restoring transparency in the foreign exchange market, eliminating arbitrage opportunities and improving investor confidence.
Three years after the reforms were introduced, the organisation said there is growing evidence that macroeconomic stability has improved”.
Yusuf pointed to the significant increase in Nigeria’s external reserves, which are now approaching the $50 billion mark, as one of the clearest indicators of recovery.
He also highlighted sustained trade surpluses, improved confidence among domestic and foreign investors, and a moderation in exchange rate volatility since 2025.
According to him, another major contributor to the strengthening of Nigeria’s external position has been the emergence of domestic refining capacity, led by the Dangote Refinery.
He said reduced dependence on imported petroleum products has enhanced foreign exchange conservation, improved energy security and contributed to greater exchange rate stability.
“An economy that produces more of what it consumes is inherently more resilient than one that depends excessively on imports,” the report noted.
He further praised the discontinuation of Ways and Means financing, describing it as an important step towards restoring monetary discipline and improving macroeconomic stability.
However, despite the gains recorded in fiscal management and reserve accumulation, CPPE warned that significant challenges remain.
The report expressed concern over the rapid growth of Nigeria’s public debt stock, which rose to ₦159.3 trillion as of December 2025.
According to him, the increase was driven largely by the sharp depreciation of the naira, which inflated the domestic value of external debt, as well as the securitisation of legacy Ways and Means obligations.
He noted that while fiscal leakages have been curtailed, government revenue growth has not yet sufficiently closed the financing gap left by the end of direct central bank financing.
Yusuf therefore called for stronger efforts to improve fiscal sustainability through enhanced revenue generation, prudent expenditure management and effective implementation of ongoing tax reforms.
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He stressed that while the administration has largely succeeded in stabilising the economy and rebuilding external buffers, the next phase of reforms must focus on translating those gains into higher living standards, job creation and inclusive economic growth.
According to him, the ultimate success of the reform agenda will be measured not only by stronger reserves and improved fiscal indicators, but by its ability to improve the welfare of ordinary Nigerians.
