…Tinubu tightens grip on S/West as grassroots tension quietly builds
…2027 shifts from endorsement to acceptance as voters prepare to decide
By Sodiq Adelakun
The early endorsements of Obafemi Hamzat in Lagos and Solomon Adeola in Ogun signal a calculated strategy to secure continuity, but they also raise questions about internal democracy within the APC.
Behind the language of unity and zoning lies a deeper contest between elite consensus and grassroots participation ahead of the 2027 elections.
As the ruling party tightens its grip on the South-West, the real test may not be opposition strength but voter acceptance of pre-arranged outcomes.
With the 2027 general elections still months away, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) appears to have moved decisively to shape the political future of two of its most strategic strongholds—Lagos and Ogun States.
The endorsement of Obafemi Hamzat as the preferred successor in Lagos and the emergence of Solomon Olamilekan Adeola as the consensus governorship candidate in Ogun are not isolated developments.
Rather, they point to a broader, carefully coordinated effort within the party to manage succession, preserve dominance, and avoid internal fractures ahead of a high-stakes election cycle.
At the centre of this unfolding political choreography is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, widely regarded as the architect of the APC’s enduring influence in the South-West.
His political network—tested over decades—now appears fully mobilised to ensure continuity not only at the federal level but also across key states.
In Lagos, the endorsement of Hamzat by the Governance Advisory Council (GAC) marks a critical turning point in the state’s succession politics. The GAC, long seen as the apex decision-making body within the Lagos APC, rarely makes pronouncements without far-reaching consequences.
Its backing of the deputy governor effectively places him at the front of the race, even before the formal primary process unfolds.
Hamzat’s credentials are formidable. Having served under Tinubu, Babatunde Fashola and currently alongside Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, he represents continuity in governance and policy direction. His long-standing involvement in the state’s political architecture has earned him the trust of party elites.
Supporters within the APC, including James Faleke, have been unequivocal in their backing. Faleke described the qualities expected of the next governor, emphasising loyalty, experience and accessibility.
“I expect loyalty. Somebody who is very loyal, who is a party man, who knows virtually critical stakeholders,” he said, adding that the next governor must be “a people’s person; somebody who carries the love of everybody.”
He went further to justify Hamzat’s candidacy, stating, “I believe that he is the right person to come in at this time… He has seen the rudiment of the governance in Lagos.”
Yet, while these endorsements underscore party unity, they also bring to the fore a recurring debate in Nigerian politics—the balance between consensus and competition.
Lagos, a state with a rapidly evolving political consciousness, has in recent years witnessed increasing demands for inclusiveness and transparency in candidate selection. The perception that outcomes are being predetermined could test the APC’s ability to maintain both elite cohesion and grassroots support.
Also, in Ogun State, the emergence of Adeola—popularly known as Yayi—as the APC’s consensus candidate reflects a different but equally strategic calculation.
The decision, endorsed by Governor Dapo Abiodun and supported by party leaders, is rooted in the principle of zoning. For years, Ogun West Senatorial District has agitated for the opportunity to produce the state’s governor, a demand now being addressed through Adeola’s adoption.
Accepting the nomination, Adeola struck a tone of unity and continuity.
“I will not let you down. I promise to keep the flag flying. I promise to maintain the unity, peace and progress that have taken place in Ogun State,” he said.
He also pledged to consolidate the state’s economic gains, describing Ogun as “the fastest growing economy in Nigeria” and vowing to sustain its trajectory.
However, beyond the rhetoric of fairness lies a more complex political reality. Adeola’s career trajectory—spanning Lagos and Ogun—positions him uniquely but also raises questions about identity and political alignment.
His roots in Lagos politics, where he previously served in both the state assembly and the National Assembly, could be seen as both an asset and a potential point of contention among local stakeholders.
The consensus arrangement, while reducing the likelihood of internal conflict, may also obscure underlying tensions among aspirants and party factions who stepped down in the interest of unity.
Taken together, the developments in Lagos and Ogun reveal a broader pattern within the APC—a preference for consensus-driven outcomes aimed at minimising internal disputes and presenting a united front.
This strategy is not without precedent. Across Nigeria’s political landscape, parties have often adopted consensus arrangements to avoid the rancour and fragmentation associated with competitive primaries.
In the current context, however, the stakes are significantly higher.
With President Tinubu seeking re-election and the APC facing emerging opposition coalitions, the need for internal stability has become paramount. Party leaders have repeatedly emphasised their preparedness, with Faleke insisting that the APC remains “strategically positioned and unaffected by opposition alignments.”
“We have our strategy, it will work, and we will win the election,” he declared.
Despite its apparent advantages, the consensus approach carries inherent risks.
Political history in Nigeria suggests that sidelining competitive processes can lead to unintended consequences, including defections, voter apathy and, in some cases, backlash at the polls.
Even within the APC, signs of internal disagreement are evident in other states, where consensus arrangements have been challenged by aspirants insisting on open primaries.
The delicate balance between unity and inclusiveness will therefore be critical as the party navigates the months ahead.
As the countdown to 2027 continues, the APC’s strategy in the South-West appears clear: consolidate power early, manage succession carefully, and enter the elections with minimal internal disruption.
For Hamzat and Adeola, the endorsements represent significant milestones—but not final victories.
Ultimately, the legitimacy of their candidacies will be tested not only within party structures but also at the ballot box.
For voters, the unfolding developments present a fundamental question about the nature of democratic choice: whether consensus-driven politics enhances stability or constrains participation.
In the months ahead, that question may prove as decisive as the elections themselves.
