By David Oluwatosin
Nigeria’s merchandise trade surplus widened to ₦12.6 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, driven by a sharp increase in exports and slower growth in imports, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The surplus rose 67 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 101 per cent year-on-year, extending Nigeria’s run of consecutive trade surpluses that began in late 2022.
The NBS data also showed that total merchandise trade increased by 19 per cent quarter-on-quarter and six per cent year-on-year to ₦41.4 trillion in Q2 2026.
Exports were the major driver of the improvement, rising 28 per cent from the previous quarter and 19 per cent year-on-year to ₦27 trillion.
In contrast, imports increased by six per cent quarter-on-quarter but declined by 13 per cent year-on-year to ₦14.4 trillion.
The stronger export performance, combined with restrained import demand, resulted in a substantial expansion of Nigeria’s trade balance during the quarter.
A notable shift in the country’s export structure was recorded during the quarter, as non-crude oil exports grew faster than crude exports.
Non-crude exports increased by 42 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 31 per cent year-on-year to ₦14.1 trillion, making them the largest contributor to export growth.
Crude oil exports, meanwhile, stood at ₦12.9 trillion, accounting for 48 per cent of total exports.
The share of crude exports has declined significantly from about 82.5 per cent recorded in late 2023, indicating a gradual broadening of Nigeria’s export base.
The shift has been supported by increased domestic refining activity and growth in non-oil exports.
On the import side, the major decline came from fuel and lubricant imports, which fell sharply to ₦1.8 trillion from ₦5.6 trillion a year earlier.
Primary fuel imports declined by 52 per cent to ₦1.6 trillion, while processed fuel imports fell by 75 per cent to ₦979.2 billion.
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The contraction points to the growing impact of domestic refining capacity on Nigeria’s petroleum import bill, as locally refined products increasingly meet domestic fuel demand.
The Q2 trade performance strengthens Nigeria’s external trade position, with higher non-crude export revenues and lower petroleum import requirements providing key support.
Analysts expect the trade surplus to remain resilient if non-crude exports continue to expand and import growth remains contained.
However, the sustainability of the improvement will depend on the continued growth of domestic production, export diversification and the ability of local industries to compete in international markets.
