The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is targeting between 300,000 and 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in additional crude oil production from successive licensing rounds as it seeks to lift Nigeria’s output to three million bpd by 2030.
The commission’s Chief Executive Officer, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, disclosed this in a recent interview with S&P Global, saying the regulator planned to conduct oil asset auctions at least once a year, with the possibility of holding two rounds annually where conditions permit.
Eyesan said the NUPRC was targeting a six- to seven-month turnaround time for each licensing process as part of efforts to attract new investors, accelerate field development and reverse years of declining crude production.
Nigeria currently produces about 1.5 million bpd of crude and condensate, according to the OPEC+ Survey by S&P Global Energy. Production has remained below the two million bpd mark for the past 12 years amid ageing assets, underinvestment and disruptions to operations.
Eyesan said the next licensing round could commence by early October, with 13 blocks that were not awarded during the 2025 bid round expected to be reintroduced to the market.
The proposed exercise could cover deepwater and shallow-water acreage, as well as frontier onshore basins.
The development follows the 2025 bid round, during which 37 licences were awarded out of the 50 blocks offered.
According to Eyesan, the assets awarded in the previous round could contribute about 300,000 bpd to Nigeria’s production within their first three years.
She, however, said the NUPRC would be more selective in future licensing exercises after determining that some of the blocks offered previously were not sufficiently viable.
The NUPRC is also seeking to attract more indigenous and emerging operators into the upstream sector as some international oil companies reduce their exposure to Nigeria’s onshore assets.
Eyesan identified Renaissance and First E&P as examples of emerging operators that could contribute more significantly to production growth.
The commission is also introducing “drill-or-drop” provisions to discourage companies from retaining oil acreage without developing it.
Under the 2025 bid round, shallow-water licences were issued for three years, while deepwater and frontier licences were issued for five years, subject to applicable extension terms.
The approach is intended to encourage operators to move from holding acreage to actual exploration and production within defined timelines.
The regulator is simultaneously working to ensure that increased crude production translates into greater feedstock availability for Nigeria’s growing refining industry.
The 700,000 bpd Dangote refinery recently sourced about 77 per cent of its feedstock from Nigerian crude, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.
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Eyesan said the commission supported efforts to increase domestic crude supply but acknowledged that refiners would continue to consider the price and quality of crude when making procurement decisions.
To strengthen compliance with the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation, the NUPRC is developing a compliance trading platform that would allow producers exceeding their domestic supply requirements to transfer compliance certificates to producers with greater export exposure.
The proposed mechanism is expected to provide producers with greater flexibility while improving compliance with domestic crude supply requirements.
Although the immediate objective is to reach three million bpd by 2030, Eyesan said Nigeria could potentially achieve much higher production if investment and upstream activity are sustained.
She projected that the country could reach four million bpd within eight to 10 years.
The NUPRC’s strategy therefore combines regular licensing rounds, tighter acreage-development requirements, increased participation by indigenous operators and measures to improve crude supply to domestic refineries.
The commission expects the approach to attract fresh capital into the upstream sector, bring more oil fields into production and reverse the prolonged decline in Nigeria’s crude output.
