By Seun Ibiyemi
Nigeria’s petrol imports surged by about 234 per cent between May and July 2026, raising fresh concerns over the future of domestic refining and the government’s efforts to reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said average Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports jumped from 5.9 million litres per day in May to 18.1 million litres per day in June, before rising further to 19.7 million litres per day in July.
The sharp increase pushed the share of imported petrol in Nigeria’s total PMS receipts from 12.4 per cent in May to 43.3 per cent in July, despite the significant expansion in domestic refining capacity.
CPPE, in its brief on rising petroleum-product imports and the future of domestic refining, warned that continued importation without a clearly established supply gap could weaken refinery utilisation, discourage fresh investments and undermine Nigeria’s energy-security objectives.
The development comes as domestic refining capacity has expanded, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reporting a test run above 700,000 barrels per day in June.
CPPE said the surge in imports therefore required urgent regulatory scrutiny, particularly regarding the basis on which petroleum product import licences were being issued.
The organisation argued that imports should only be authorised where there is independently verified evidence that domestic refiners cannot meet market demand.
It said imports could remain necessary during refinery outages, seasonal demand spikes, product-quality deficiencies or strategic stock replenishment, but warned against granting import licences where adequate domestic supply is available.
The think tank called on the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to publish regular, product-by-product assessments of national supply gaps before approving significant import volumes.
It also urged the regulator to give qualified domestic refiners a transparent opportunity to meet verified demand before allowing imports to fill any residual shortfall.
According to CPPE, the rising import volumes could have significant implications for investments made in Nigeria’s refining industry, as imported products may displace locally refined petrol and reduce refinery utilisation.
The group further warned that unnecessary imports would increase pressure on foreign exchange because payments extend beyond the cost of petroleum products to freight, insurance and other associated expenses.
CPPE said Nigeria should adopt a “domestic supply first” framework under which imports are permitted only to address clearly quantified and verified supply gaps.
It recommended time-bound import licences, regular audits of approved and landed volumes, sanctions for misreporting and an emergency-import trigger based on objective supply thresholds.
The organisation also called for monthly publication of national petroleum supply-and-demand data, including refinery output, imports, exports, inventories, domestic consumption and stock-sufficiency levels.
CPPE maintained that the objective should not be to shield local refiners from competition but to create a transparent market in which domestic producers compete while imports are used only when necessary.
It said stronger coordination among regulators, refiners, marketers and other industry stakeholders was essential to prevent market distortions and protect consumers.
READ ALSO:Minister faults Atiku’s claim, says Nigeria’s borders are not closed
The organisation also urged the Federal Government to strengthen crude oil supply to domestic refineries, saying reliable feedstock availability was critical to sustaining the growth of Nigeria’s refining industry.
CPPE warned that allowing large-scale imports without transparent evidence of a domestic supply deficit could undermine one of the country’s biggest opportunities to conserve foreign exchange, create jobs, deepen industrial linkages and improve energy security.
The group said Nigeria must now shift from managing chronic dependence on imported petroleum products to building a competitive domestic refining ecosystem capable of meeting local demand and supporting regional markets.
