….As food inflation hits single digit first time in 10 yrs
… Naira hits N1,390 on black market as gap closes 2.5%
…. Nigeria records strongest foreign inflows in five years on reforms
By Adeyemi David
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated slightly to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, down from 15.15 per cent recorded in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The marginal decline of 0.05 percentage points suggests a continued slowdown in price pressures at the start of the year, following several months of easing inflation.
On a year-on-year basis, inflation dropped significantly compared to the same period last year.
The January 2026 rate of 15.10 per cent is 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent recorded in January 2025.
The report also showed a contraction in prices compared to the previous month. Inflation stood at –2.88 per cent month on month in January 2026, compared to 0.54 per cent in December 2025, representing a drop of 3.42 percentage points.
According to the NBS, this indicates that the general price level declined in January, meaning the average cost of goods and services fell relative to December.
Despite the recent easing, the broader inflation trend remains elevated.
The percentage change in the average Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending January 2026 was 21.97 per cent, compared to the previous twelve-month period.
This represents a 4.37 percentage point increase from the 17.59 per cent recorded in January 2025, showing that underlying price pressures over the past year remain significant.
Food inflation, the largest component of household spending, fell sharply in January, providing the biggest relief to consumers.
On a year-on-year basis, food inflation stood at 8.89 per cent, a steep drop of 20.73 percentage points from 29.63 per cent recorded in January 2025.
Month on month, food prices declined further to –6.02 per cent, compared to -0.36 per cent in December 2025, representing a decrease of 5.66 percentage points.
The NBS attributed the decline to falling average prices of staple items, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers, and cowpeas.
The twelve-month average food inflation rate for the period ending January 2026 was 20.29 per cent, significantly lower than the 38.47 per cent recorded in January 2025, indicating sustained easing in food price pressures over the past year.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 17.72 per cent year on year in January 2026, down by 7.55 percentage points from 25.27 per cent recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation declined to –1.69 per cent, compared to 0.58 per cent in December 2025, showing slower price increases in non-food items.
The twelve-month average core inflation rate was 22.84 per cent, representing a 4.40 percentage point decline from 27.24 per cent recorded in January 2025.
In urban areas, inflation stood at 15.36 per cent year on year in January 2026, a sharp decline of 14.09 percentage points from 29.45 pet cent recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation fell to –2.72 per cent, down by 3.71 percentage points from 0.99 per cent in December 2025, indicating falling prices in cities during the month.
However, the twelve-month average urban inflation rate remained high at 22.30 per cent in January 2026, which is 3.42 percentage points higher than the 18.88 per cent recorded in January 2025.
Rural inflation followed a similar downward trend. On a year-on-year basis, rural inflation stood at 14.44 per cent in January 2026, down by 10.60 percentage points from 25.04 per cent recorded in January 2025.
Month on month, rural inflation dropped further to –3.29 per cent, compared to –0.55 per cent in December 2025, showing deeper price declines in rural areas.
The twelve-month average rural inflation rate was 21.03 per cent, significantly lower than the 30.79 per centrecorded in January 2025, reflecting easing price pressures over the past year in rural communities.
According to analysts Meristem of January 2026, inflationary pressures continued to moderate, largely on account of the normalisation of post-holiday demand and fairly strong supply conditions.
“ Data from our Commodities Price Tracker indicates sustained cooling in food prices, with key staples such as maize and sorghum recording declines, while paddy rice posted a slower price increase.
However, oilseeds, including soya beans and sesame, experienced renewed price pressures, chiefly driven by stronger export demand,” research analysts at Meristem mentioned in the report.
They stated that PMS prices remained largely stable for the most part of the month following the Dangote Refinery’s price reduction in December, with most stations retailing PMS around N739.00 per litre.
Naira hits N1,390 on black market as gap closes 2.5%
Also, naira strengthened sharply to N1,390 per dollar on Monday in the black market, further narrowing the gap between the parallel market and the official foreign exchange (FX) window by 2.5 percent.
Data obtained from street traders showed the naira appreciated by 2.16 percent to N1,390 on Monday morning, gaining N30 from N1,420 quoted on Friday in the parallel market.
The appreciation has reduced the exchange rate spread to N35 from N92 recorded on Wednesday last week, indicating continued convergence between the two markets.
On Friday, the gap between the official FX market and the parallel market had already narrowed to N65 as Bureau De Change (BDC) operators prepared to access fresh dollar supply from banks following the Central Bank’s reopening of the retail FX window for the bureaus.
The naira depreciated marginally for the second time last week, slipping by N1.76 as the dollar was quoted at N1,355.42 on Friday, a loss of 0.13 percent compared to N1,353.66 recorded on Thursday at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated.
Nigeria records strongest foreign inflows in five years on reforms
Nigeria attracted its highest level of foreign capital in five years in the first nine months of 2025, as currency reforms and improved dollar liquidity lured offshore investors back into Africa’s most populous economy after a prolonged contraction.
Capital importation into Nigeria jumped 132.27 percent to $16.77 billion in the nine months ended September 2025 from $7.22 billion in the same period two years ago, supported by strong portfolio investment, according to newly released data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
That figure exceeded the total $12.32 billion capital importation reported in the full year of 2024 and $3.90 billion posted in the same period in 2023, reflecting renewed investor confidence in the country’s economic fundamentals.
Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) accounted for the largest share of capital, with inflows rising 226.09 percent year-on-year to $14.25 billion in nine months. That contrasts with $565.21 million in Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) recorded in the same period.
Analysts linked the surge in FPIs to the high-yield environment in the country due to the high interest rate at 27 percent that has given investors juicy returns but warned of risks as portfolio investments are susceptible to policy shifts.
FDI, a key indicator of real economic growth, remains a major concern despite repeated investment pledges by offshore investors. The last time Africa’s biggest oil producer reported FDIs of up to $1 billion was in 2020, reflecting cautious sentiment despite policy reforms that have made the country more attractive to investors.
Nigeria embarked on sweeping reforms in 2023, including eliminating fuel subsidies that drained billions of dollars, liberalised its foreign exchange markets, and overhauling its archaic tax systems to allow for more efficiency and compliance.
Those reforms have brought stability to the country and put it on its best footing in about a decade.
According to the NBS, the banking sector recorded the highest inflow with $3.14 billion, representing 52.25 percent of total capital imported in Q3 2025, followed by the financing sector, valued at $1.85 billion.
Capital importation during the reference period originated largely from the United Kingdom, with $2.93 billion, representing 48.80 percent of the total capital imported. This was followed by the United States with $950.47 billion.
Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited received the highest capital importation into Nigeria in Q3 2025, with $2.11 billion, followed by Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc with $1.78 billion and Citibank Nigeria Limited with $561.40 million.
