The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said Nigeria is unlikely to suffer significant economic consequences from the United States’ decision to impose a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from the country, arguing that the nation’s key exports remain largely unaffected.
In a policy brief released on Sunday, the Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the new tariff regime is a continuation of the United States’ reciprocal trade policy aimed at protecting domestic industries and strengthening American manufacturing competitiveness.
According to the policy brief, the tariffs were introduced under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act following the judicial invalidation of the earlier reciprocal tariff framework, with allegations relating to forced labour forming the legal basis for the latest measures.
He noted that more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to the United States consist of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, all of which have been exempted from the new tariff measures.
He further stated that the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export destination. It cited first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade statistics showing that Nigeria recorded exports worth approximately ₦21.6 trillion, with exports to the U.S. accounting for only 5.56 per cent.
India emerged as Nigeria’s largest export market during the period with a 13.09 per cent share, followed by France at 9.29 per cent, the Netherlands at 9.22 per cent and Spain at 7.68 per cent, placing the United States in fifth position.
While acknowledging that some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, could face reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market, he maintained that the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange inflows and macroeconomic stability would be modest.
“The products affected account for only a small proportion of Nigeria’s total exports, while the dominant export category to the U.S. remains outside the scope of the tariffs,” the policy brief stated.
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However, he warned that the development signals a broader shift toward global protectionism and strategic trade policies, urging Nigeria to intensify efforts to diversify exports, improve manufacturing competitiveness, promote domestic value addition and deepen regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
He also advised the Federal Government to strengthen labour standards, enhance supply chain transparency and engage the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to minimise any adverse effects on affected exporters.
According to him, Nigeria’s greater challenge lies not in the immediate impact of the tariffs but in adapting to an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment.
