By Seun Ibiyemi
The Sea and Empowerment Research Centre (SEREC) has warned that Nigeria’s inflation rate could rise by three to five per cent amid the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, citing mounting geopolitical and economic risks to global energy and maritime systems.
SEREC’s Head of Research, Eugene Nweke, disclosed this in a statement issued on Monday in Abuja, noting that sustained hostilities could disrupt oil supply routes, drive up freight costs and trigger renewed global inflationary pressures.
Nigeria’s headline inflation had eased slightly to 15.10 per cent in January, down from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, according to the Consumer Price Index report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
However, Nweke expressed concern over the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor between Iran and Oman through which about one-fifth of global crude oil supply transits daily.
He noted that Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Araghchi, had warned that attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, including threats against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, would have “deep and widespread” consequences.
According to Nweke, any prolonged disruption could trigger sustained oil price volatility, freight rate escalation, spikes in marine war-risk insurance and broader global inflationary pressures.
“SEREC scenario modelling indicates oil prices may range between 110 and 140 dollars per barrel under sustained tension.
“Global freight rates could increase by 15 to 40 per cent due to rerouting and risk premiums.
“Marine war-risk insurance may surge by 200 to 400 per cent in high-risk corridors.
“Emerging economies may face renewed inflation and currency depreciation risks,” he said.
While Nigeria could record short-term fiscal gains from elevated crude prices, Nweke cautioned that the benefits may be offset by inflationary pressures driven by higher logistics and imported input costs.
He warned that exchange rate volatility could worsen, while food and transport prices may surge.
“At 120 dollars per barrel, additional oil revenue could reach 18 to 22 billion dollars annually, and GDP growth may increase by one to 1.2 per cent in the short term,” he added.
He stressed that without prudent fiscal discipline, potential revenue gains could be eroded by macroeconomic instability.
Nweke said Nigeria’s refining capacity, particularly with the operationalisation of the Dangote Refinery, could offer a strategic buffer if integrated with regional supply networks and supported by frameworks such as ECOWAS cooperation mechanisms.
He advised the government to channel any oil windfall into stabilisation funds and infrastructure investment rather than recurrent expenditure, ensure steady crude allocation to domestic refineries, strengthen maritime security coordination across the Gulf of Guinea, expand strategic petroleum and refined product reserves, and deepen regional trade integration.
“The U.S.–Iran confrontation is more than a geopolitical conflict; it is a structural stress test for global trade and maritime systems,” Nweke said.
He added that Nigeria’s resilience would depend not merely on crude revenue gains, but on disciplined fiscal management, optimisation of domestic refining, trade diversification and enhanced maritime competitiveness.
