Nigeria’s foreign exchange market underwent a major structural transformation in 2025, with autonomous inflows overtaking Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)-driven liquidity as the dominant source of dollar supply, according to new data from the Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA).
The report showed that autonomous foreign exchange inflows comprising private capital sources such as diaspora remittances, portfolio investments, non-oil export earnings and financial services flows — accounted for 64.94 per cent of total FX inflows in 2025, marking the highest share on record and signalling a deepening shift in the country’s forex market structure.
The inflows surged to $72.91 billion in 2025, up sharply from $59.29 billion in 2024 and $41.80 billion in 2023, representing a near doubling of private-sector dollar inflows within two years.
Overall FX inflows into the Nigerian economy rose to $112.27 billion in 2025, compared with $99.44 billion in 2024 and $65.76 billion in 2023, while net FX flow strengthened further to $66.67 billion from $58.84 billion recorded the previous year.
The figures indicate that Nigeria’s forex market is not only recovering from previous liquidity pressures but evolving into a more market-driven system in which private capital increasingly dictates FX availability.
FMDA data showed that autonomous inflows accounted for just 36.44 per cent of total inflows in 2023 before rising to 59.62 per cent in 2024 and climbing further in 2025.
Although the CBN maintained a stabilising presence in the market, its relative dominance weakened as private inflows accelerated.
CBN inflows slipped marginally from $40.15 billion in 2024 to $39.36 billion in 2025, while autonomous inflows expanded by $13.62 billion over the same period.
At the same time, the apex bank’s FX sales rebounded strongly after plunging in 2024. CBN FX sales rose by 126.37 per cent to $8.94 billion in 2025 from $3.95 billion in 2024, though still below the $9.9 billion recorded in 2023.
CBN outflows edged higher from $32.16 billion in 2024 to $32.79 billion in 2025, while autonomous outflows increased from $8.44 billion to $12.80 billion, reflecting broader market participation and growing cross-border activity.
The report also highlighted a dramatic shift in the pattern of FX demand, with invisible transactions overtaking merchandise imports as the largest source of forex utilisation in Nigeria.
Total FX utilisation climbed to $47.17 billion in 2025, driven largely by invisible-related transactions, which surged to $27.27 billion from $11.10 billion in 2024.
Financial services transactions alone accounted for $21.22 billion of invisible demand, underscoring the rising importance of cross-border financial flows, debt servicing, and service-related payments within the economy.
Import-related FX demand increased more moderately from $15.54 billion in 2024 to $19.90 billion in 2025, while the industrial sector remained the largest merchandise-related FX consumer at $8.43 billion.
Demand from the oil sector nearly doubled to $4.98 billion from $2.26 billion a year earlier. Business services demand also rose sharply to $3.48 billion from $702.38 million, while educational services demand declined significantly to $55.16 million in 2025.
Analysts said the figures reflect the growing impact of Nigeria’s macroeconomic reforms, especially exchange-rate liberalisation and measures aimed at restoring investor confidence.
The CEO of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf said the rebound in autonomous inflows was directly linked to ongoing reforms.
“The autonomous inflows are driven by the reform. Remittances from the diaspora, inflows from foreign portfolio investors, non-oil export proceeds — all manner of things outside the traditional sources of our forex.
This reflects the fact that the reform has positioned the economy to attract those inflows,” he said.
Speaking on the rebound in CBN FX sales, Yusuf noted that the increase was not necessarily driven by heavier intervention from the apex bank.
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“It is not necessarily because the CBN has significantly increased its intervention. A lot of inflows are coming in. Those are not CBN funds.
In fact, there was a time the CBN was even buying forex on the market because of the liquidity.
The bigger factor is the supply side the fact that autonomous inflows have increased significantly,” he added.
The former Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry also explained that the spike in invisible-related transactions reflected increased international business activity tied to improved investor confidence.
“When you are paying foreign debt, it is a financial services transaction. When airlines come to Nigeria, when shipping companies operate here, when expatriates come into oil and gas and tech all of these services have to be paid for in foreign currency. There is a lot of international transaction going on now because of the confidence the reform has restored,” he said.
